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Intel agencies revisiting Iran
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U.S. intelligence agencies are quietly revising their widely disputed
assertion that Iran has no active program to design or build a nuclear
bomb. Three U.S. and two foreign counterproliferation officials tell
NEWSWEEK that, as soon as next month, the intel agencies are expected
to complete an “update” to their controversial 2007 National
Intelligence Estimate, which concluded that Tehran “halted its nuclear
weapons program” in 2003 and “had not restarted” it as of mid-2007.
The officials, who asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive
information, say the revised report will bring U.S. intel agencies
more in line with other countries’ spy agencies (such as Britain’s
MI6, Germany’s BND, and Israel’s Mossad), which have maintained that
Iran has been pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Yet two of the U.S. sources caution the new assessment will likely be
“Talmudic” in its parsing. They say U.S. analysts now believe that
Iran may well have resumed “research” on nuclear weapons–theoretical
work on how to design and construct a bomb–but that Tehran is not
engaged in “development”–actually trying to build a weapon. “The
intelligence communityis always reluctant to make a total retreat
because it makes them look bad,” says the third American.
This distinction between research and development is unlikely to
satisfy hardline critics, who say the intel agencies, burned for
overestimating Saddam Hussein’s weapons-of-mass-destruction program,
have underplayed Iran’s bomb-building efforts. But the U.S. officials
insist it’s an accumulation of fresh intelligence, not political or
diplomatic pressure, that prompted the reconsideration. Revelations
that Iran excavated a secret underground nuclear-enrichment facility
near Qum may have heightened alarm about Tehran’s intentions. America
and its allies, say the U.S. and foreign officials, have also been
poring over documents that purport to show Iranian research on a
“neutron initiator,” a device most often used for bombs–not
electricity, which the Iranians insist is their nuclear program’s
goal.
While the update will cause a stir in Washington, it’s unlikely to
have an immediate impact on the White House’s Iran policy. The
administration already bases its cautious diplomatic approach on the
assumption that Iran has, in fact, been pursuing a bomb, despite intel
agencies’ reservations. Some officials also warn it’s still possible
that the update–a highly classified, on-again, off-again proposition
for months–could be spiked at the last moment if the often-fractious
intel bureaucracy can’t agree on what it should say. The office of the
national intelligence director, which would issue the update, had no
comment.
February 7, 2010
Newsweek
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